The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route, has been effectively closed for over 100 days due to regional conflict, disrupting an estimated 95% of crude shipments from the Arabian Gulf. Despite this being labeled the largest supply disruption in modern history, global oil prices have remained surprisingly stable, with Brent crude trading around $87.55 per barrel. This stability is attributed to strategic reserves, especially in China, which is drawing down stockpiles at about one million barrels per day. Additional supply from non-OPEC producers like the US, Brazil, and Canada has also helped offset the shortfall.

A shadowy 'dark trade' of untracked tankers—sailing without transponders, often at night or under naval escort—has allowed some crude to move, though exact volumes are unknown. Analysts estimate up to 100 million barrels may have passed since early May, equivalent to just five days of pre-crisis flow. Meanwhile, global oil demand adjustments and stock releases have kept markets from panicking.

However, the relief may be temporary. Storage levels are nearing operationally critical lows, and the US, acting as a swing producer, faces domestic heating demands by winter. The International Energy Agency warns that if the strait remains closed beyond July, the market could face severe strain. Full recovery of damaged energy infrastructure could take up to two years, with the UAE expecting normal Hormuz flows only by 2027.