A growing body of climate research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse by the end of the century, with severe consequences for Europe’s climate. A new study published in 'Science Advances' indicates this scenario is more likely than previously thought, challenging earlier assumptions about the system’s stability. The AMOC plays a crucial role in regulating temperatures across the Atlantic region, and its failure could lead to significantly colder winters in Europe—up to ten degrees Celsius cooler in northern areas—and more intense weather extremes.

Despite these risks, Switzerland has not included an AMOC collapse in its official climate scenarios, leaving key sectors like agriculture and energy unprepared. Climate researcher Thomas Frölicher from the University of Bern warns this omission is a serious oversight. Without planning for such a shift, Swiss infrastructure, including district heating systems, could face sudden and severe strain. Changes in atmospheric circulation could also increase the frequency and intensity of winter storms across Europe.

While the timing and likelihood of an AMOC collapse remain debated within the scientific community, Frölicher argues it’s too risky to ignore. Even a low-probability event warrants preparation when the potential damage is this large. Scientists continue to monitor oceanic indicators, but current policy and adaptation strategies in Switzerland do not yet reflect the urgency of this potential threat.