This year's Tony race reflects a season without clear hits, useful context for a colleague or friend following Broadway's ups and downs.
Tony Showdown: Schmigadoon vs. The Lost Boys Story flow and key facts
The 2026 Tony Awards are shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, with no dominant Broadway hit capturing both critical and commercial success. Unlike last year’s clear frontrunners, this season’s lack of consensus has created tight races across major categories. 'Schmigadoon,' a musical parodying Golden Age Broadway, is favored for Best Musical, though the ambitious vampire-themed 'The Lost Boys' could pull off an upset. In Best Play, Bess Wohl’s 'Liberation,' a 1970s-set dramedy about the Women’s Lib movement, is poised to win despite having closed in February — a rare feat for a production no longer running. Its Pulitzer Prize win has kept it top of mind for voters.
Facts
- The 2026 Tony Awards feature unusually close races due to a lack of clear commercial or critical hits on Broadway.
- 'Schmigadoon' is the favorite for Best Musical, while 'The Lost Boys' is a dark horse contender.
- 'Liberation' by Bess Wohl is predicted to win Best Play despite closing in February, a rare outcome for a non-running show.
- Best Revival of a Musical is expected to go to 'Cats: The Jellicle Ball,' a reimagined version set in Harlem ballroom culture.
- Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy are heavy favorites to win Best Actor and Actress in a Musical for their roles in 'Ragtime.'
- John Lithgow is predicted to win Best Actor in a Play for portraying Roald Dahl in 'Giant,' edging out Nathan Lane in 'Death of a Salesman.'
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